An assault on Crimea may not be necessary: an expert explained what would have to break Russian defenses

The logistical blockade of the temporarily occupied Crimea could become one of the key instruments of pressure on the Russian grouping on the peninsula. Military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Grabskiy explained that a direct assault on Crimea may prove unnecessary if the enemy loses the ability to properly supply its troops.

He said this in a comment to Channel 24.

According to the expert, completely stopping Russian logistics at this stage is difficult. However, the task of the Defense Forces of Ukraine is not simply to strike individual routes, but to so weaken the flow of weapons, equipment, ammunition, fuel and other materiel that the presence of enemy forces in the region loses operational sense.

Serhiy Grabskiy explained that this is not about an instant “cutting off” of Crimea, but about a long-term and continuous exhaustion of the occupiers’ logistics.

“We can weaken the flow of weapons, combat equipment, ammunition, fuel and other materiel, but not stop it. Our task is to make this weakening so great as to create the preconditions for the operational impracticality of the enemy’s forces remaining in a given region”.

The expert also noted that for a serious effect on Russian logistics the intensity of strikes must be significantly higher.

“For us to really speak of serious logistics problems for the enemy, we need to increase those strikes by at least three, if not four, times in intensity, and make the road simply unusable for movement. There are certain algorithms for this, they are being applied now, but this is a long-term game”.

One of the key directions of such pressure is the Melitopol – Chonhar route, which the Russians use to supply the temporarily occupied Crimea.

Earlier the 3rd Separate Special Operations Regiment named after Prince Sviatoslav the Brave reported that UAV operators took part of the land route to Crimea under aerial control. The unit’s drones are destroying equipment and disrupting the enemy’s logistical routes on the Melitopol – Chonhar route.

As a result, military personnel noted, logistics for supplying the Russian army and fuel to the peninsula have already been made more difficult.

In fact, this is about the gradual transformation of Crimea from Russia’s rear base into a problematic and expensive bridgehead to maintain. If the occupiers cannot consistently deliver fuel, ammunition, food, equipment and reserves, their ability to conduct active operations will sharply decline.

Grabskiy compares this logic to the events of 2022, when strikes on the enemy’s logistics made the presence of Russian troops in certain directions operationally impractical. At that time supply problems became one of the factors in the Russian withdrawal.

In the case of Crimea, the stakes are even higher for the Kremlin. The peninsula has not only military but also political significance for Russia. That is why the loss of the ability to properly supply the grouping in Crimea could become a serious strategic problem for the occupiers.

For the Mykolaiv region this topic also has direct significance. For years Crimea remained one of Russia’s key military bridgeheads in the south: from there the enemy threatened Odesa, Mykolaiv, the Black Sea coast and the entire southern direction. The weaker Russian logistics in Crimea become, the fewer opportunities the enemy has to accumulate resources, redeploy equipment, and support aviation, the fleet and missile units that pose a threat to southern Ukraine.

Earlier we wrote:

• After strikes on Chonhar the occupiers closed another bridge: Henichesk — Arabat Spit
• Crimea burned again: SBU struck at Russian ships, aviation and air defense
• They can’t take Odesa without an LST: how a strike on Crimea destroys Russia’s plans for the Mykolaiv region
• New SBU underwater weapon — the Crimean Bridge in critical condition after a powerful explosion
• Two Russian ships struck in Crimea, – Ukrainian Armed Forces