Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election

Zelensky would lose to Zaluzhnyi, Fedorov and Budanov in upcoming elections - poll

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07 Aug 2026

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Політики України, яким найбільше довіряють українці: Валерій Залужний, Михайло Федоров, Кирило Буданов, Володимир Зеленський.

According to the simulation of the second round of the presidential election, Volodymyr Zelensky would lose to Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Mykhailo Fedorov and Kyrylo Budanov. At the same time, in matchups with Petro Poroshenko and Andrii Biletsky the incumbent President would have greater support.

These results are presented in the published study “General Situation in Ukraine. BAROMETER” for August 2026.

It is important that the figures 66.2%, 63.8% and 60.3% – are not shares among all respondents. On the slides they are labeled as “election simulation” and are calculated for respondents who have decided on a choice and are ready to go vote.

In the pairing Valerii Zaluzhnyi – Volodymyr Zelensky the results among those who have decided and plan to vote look like this:

Valerii Zaluzhnyi – 66.2%;
Volodymyr Zelensky – 33.8%.

If all respondents are taken into account, 47.4% were ready to vote for Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and 24.2% for Volodymyr Zelensky. Another 10.2% chose the option “against both”, 14.7% were undecided or refused to answer, and 3.6% would not take part in the election. For modeling the result among the decided, responses from 1431 respondents were taken into account.

An even larger gap with the President is shown by the simulated pairing Mykhailo Fedorov – Volodymyr Zelensky:

Mykhailo Fedorov – 63.8%;
Volodymyr Zelensky – 36.2%.

Among all respondents support for Mykhailo Fedorov stands at 43.4%, for Volodymyr Zelensky – 24.7%. The “against both” option was chosen by 13.2%, another 15% were undecided or did not answer, and 3.9% said they would not take part in the vote. In the “election simulation” calculation for this pair 1361 decided respondents were included.

In a possible second round between Kyrylo Budanov and Volodymyr Zelensky the results among those who have decided and will go to the elections are:

Kyrylo Budanov – 60.3%;
Volodymyr Zelensky – 39.7%.

Among all survey participants Kyrylo Budanov would be supported by 39.5%, and Volodymyr Zelensky – 26%. 13.4% opposed both candidates, 17.3% were undecided or did not answer, and 3.9% would not take part in the election. For the second round modeling, responses from 1309 respondents were taken into account.

At the same time, according to the data provided together with the results, in two other simulated pairings the advantage already belongs to Volodymyr Zelensky.

In the pairing with Petro Poroshenko the results among decided voters are:

Volodymyr Zelensky – 64.8%;
Petro Poroshenko – 35.2%.

In the pairing with Andrii Biletsky:

Volodymyr Zelensky – 56.9%;
Andrii Biletsky – 43.1%.

Thus, of the 5 presented second-round scenarios Volodymyr Zelensky loses in 3: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Mykhailo Fedorov and Kyrylo Budanov. Meanwhile, in the models with Petro Poroshenko and Andrii Biletsky he remains ahead.

At the same time, the results of sociological modeling are not a forecast of the actual outcome of future elections. They show respondents’ answers to a hypothetical question at the time of the survey, and real electoral sentiments may change.

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