The Sunday Times, in an article by columnist Mark Urban, reports that Russia’s war against Ukraine is entering a decisive phase: amid increasing Ukrainian production of drones and rockets, significant losses by the Russian army and strikes on targets deep inside Russia, the Kremlin is facing a rising cost of the war, while Vladimir Putin still has room for further escalation.
According to Western experts and government officials in Europe, the situation at the front and in Russia’s rear is approaching the point where Moscow will have to make difficult strategic decisions about how to continue military operations.
Urban refers to research by senior fellow Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), who points out that the cost of continuing the war for Russia is rising rapidly, and the Kremlin will soon face a dilemma: either increase pressure on the economy and society, or scale back its military objectives in Ukraine.
Among the key factors experts highlight are Russian army personnel losses. According to Ukrainian estimates, Ukraine’s Defense Forces are already inflicting losses on the enemy that may outpace the rate at which forces are replenished with newly mobilized recruits.
Analysts do not rule out that in the coming months the number of irrecoverable losses in Russian units could exceed the influx of recruits being sent to the front to fill the ranks.
At the same time, Ukraine is ramping up its own defense production, betting on FPV drones. Previously the benchmark was around 3.5 million units per year, but that target has effectively been roughly doubled, which should strengthen the ability to strike targets across different sectors of the front.
The situation with the Starlink satellite system is mentioned separately: analysts say Ukraine has implemented measures that have limited the ability of Russian forces to use that connectivity, which has noticeably affected the dynamics of the ‘drone war’.
Drone technology expert Fabian Hintz assesses that thanks to these steps Ukraine has gained a notable advantage at distances from 50 to 200 kilometers, complicating the enemy’s actions in tactical and operational depth.
Together with the scaling up of strikes on targets deep inside Russia, an arms race and heavy combat losses, this is forcing the Kremlin to increase the costs of continuing the war. At the same time, the former British military attaché to Russia, John Forman, warns that Vladimir Putin still has tools for further escalation, and the Russian leadership does not show willingness to change course despite growing economic and military pressure.
Earlier we wrote:
- Zelensky announces ramping up strikes deep inside Russia — Ukrainian drones already reach Saint Petersburg
- For Russia it will only get worse: Sibiga responded harshly to Putin’s refusal of peace
- Russia enters a fuel crisis: gasoline is rationed, refineries cannot recover fast enough after strikes
- The ‘hot phase’ of the war in Ukraine will continue until November 3, – sources in the Ukrainian authorities.
- Ukraine and Romania launch joint drone production in Romania
