The United States has allegedly repeatedly warned Poland that Russia is considering the possibility of an armed provocation against states on NATO’s eastern flank. The potential target could be Poland or the Baltic countries, and the implementation of one of the scenarios could be possible within the coming months.
This was reported on 3 July 2026 by the British newspaper The Guardian, the British newspaper The Telegraph and the Polish outlet Onet, citing their own sources in Polish intelligence services, the Polish Ministry of Defence, diplomatic circles and the entourage of the country’s president Karol Nawrocki. The first detailed Onet article, prepared by journalist Witold Jurasz based on information from five sources, was published on 30 June 2026.
At the same time, US officials have not publicly confirmed that they passed on such a warning to Warsaw. Information about possible Moscow plans comes from unnamed interlocutors of the publications. Sources also stress that Russia has not yet made a final decision on carrying out an operation, and the described options are possible scenarios rather than a confirmed attack plan.
An Onet interlocutor from the entourage of Polish President Karol Nawrocki said that the US side systematically briefs the Polish authorities about new Russian plans regarding NATO’s eastern flank during meetings involving chiefs of general staff. According to him, Poland is not excluded from the list of potential targets.
This is not about a classic full-scale war or a large-scale invasion by the Russian army. Sources consider a limited military or hybrid operation more likely, through which the Kremlin could try to test NATO’s readiness for a collective response and the resilience of support for Ukraine.
One possible scenario mentioned is an attack by drones or missiles on Poland’s critical infrastructure facilities. Potential targets could include power plants, electrical substations and power transmission facilities. Russia could also stage a simulated air strike to force Polish forces to activate air defence systems.
It is not ruled out that after such an incident Russian propaganda would try to blame Ukraine. According to Onet, missiles or drones could be launched from Belarusian territory or Russia’s Kaliningrad region, after which the Kremlin could claim that the attack was allegedly organized by Kyiv. The most dangerous of the options considered involves a hybrid attack in a border area. Russian or Belarusian military units could cross the Polish border, calling it a mistake, a navigation failure or a rescue operation for the crew of a military helicopter that allegedly made an emergency landing on Polish territory.
According to sources, Moscow may calculate that Polish forces will not open fire immediately, and that the United States will call on the parties to negotiate in order to avoid a direct clash russia and NATO. In that case, the Kremlin could agree to withdraw its forces from Polish territory as a result of negotiations rather than under military pressure. The Russian authorities could present this as their own victory and proof of NATO’s inability to quickly defend one of the Alliance’s member states.
According to Onet, one of possible Russian ultimatums during such negotiations could be the cessation or substantial reduction of Western support for Ukraine. The publication’s sources believe that the Kremlin would try to simultaneously undermine Poland’s sovereignty, weaken trust in NATO, secure the West’s refusal to assist Ukraine and avoid a full-scale war with the Alliance.
A representative of the leadership of the Polish Ministry of Defence confirmed to journalists that the risk of such a provocation is being taken seriously. At the same time, the Polish military have already conducted exercises intended to demonstrate to Moscow their readiness to respond with fire in the event of a border violation.
The Telegraph also reported that NATO’s response to a Russian armed provocation could include direct strikes on military targets in Kaliningrad. However, there was no officially approved decision by the Alliance on such a scenario: for now it is one of the possible response options reported by the outlet citing sources.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, commenting on the media reports on 3 July 2026, confirmed that the country is intensively preparing for various scenarios:
“I do not intend to frighten anyone, but the coming months may be critical. These concerns are especially acute in the Baltic countries. Do not be afraid, prepare, but we must not underestimate this. We are aware of the threats, not least thanks to information from our allies”, – Donald Tusk.
Already on 24 April 2026 Donald Tusk said that a possible Russian attack on one of the NATO states should be considered more in terms of months rather than years. On 25 June 2026 Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski did not rule out that the Kremlin could organise a false-flag operation to create a formal pretext for further aggression.
Signs of preparations for Russian provocations were previously reported by Latvian intelligence as well. On 26 June 2026 The Guardian, citing representatives of two countries on NATO’s eastern flank, wrote that Russia could try to carry out a limited operation against Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia to test the Alliance’s unity and the US willingness to defend its European allies.
According to the Latvian side’s assessment, Russia currently does not have sufficient capacity to open a new full-scale front, since the main forces of the aggressor are engaged in the war against Ukraine. For this reason the Kremlin may prefer drone strikes, missile incidents, sabotage and other hybrid actions that would not formally look like a declaration of war.
Sources emphasise that none of these scenarios is inevitable at present. In their view, a resolute demonstration of NATO’s readiness to respond with force could make the Russian leadership abandon a provocation.
Earlier we wrote:
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- Shahed drones in NATO skies: Zelensky warned of a dangerous signal for Europe
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