Small tremors in Crimea could be a precursor to a major earthquake — seismologist

Near the temporarily occupied Crimea, a series of earthquakes was recorded over several days. The strongest of them had a magnitude of 4.5. Against the background of these underground shocks, specialists again spoke not only about seismic risks for the peninsula, but also about the vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge illegally built by the Russians.

A seismologist from the S. I. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dmytro Hryn, told RBC-Ukraine about the causes of this activity and possible consequences for southern Ukraine.

According to the Main Center of Special Control, on 22 June 2026 there were 7 earthquakes off the coast of Crimea with magnitudes from 3.3 to 4.5. Another tremor was recorded on the morning of 24 June.

The latest earthquake occurred at 05:53 at a depth of 12 kilometers. Its magnitude was 3.1. Specialists classified this tremor as imperceptible.

Seismologist Dmytro Hryn explained that Crimea is located in the seismically active Crimean-Black Sea zone. A system of faults runs near the peninsula, where tectonic stress periodically accumulates and is released.

“It is precisely at the boundaries of these plates that earthquakes occur,” the seismologist noted.

According to the scientist, a series of small shocks may indicate the gradual release of accumulated energy. At the same time, a large number of weaker earthquakes sometimes precedes a more powerful event. But it is impossible to determine the timing of a future strong earthquake based on such shocks.

The specialist recalled the destructive Crimean earthquake of 1927. At that time, the intensity of the shaking in the epicentral area reached 9 points. This is a measure of the strength of the shaking at the surface, not the magnitude of the earthquake itself.

Dmytro Hryn links the current period with the approaching century since that catastrophe and considers the risk of a new powerful earthquake to be relevant. At the same time, he emphasizes that such an event could occur either in the near future or in several years.

A separate danger for the peninsula, according to the seismologist, is the condition of the built environment. Structures erected in violation of building codes can suffer significant damage in the event of strong underground shocks.

The specialist drew particular attention to the Kerch Bridge, which the Russians use as one of the symbols of the occupation and as a logistical route to supply the seized peninsula. According to him, the problem is not only a possible single strong impact, but also the cumulative effect of seismic shocks on the structures and the soils beneath the supports.

“Considering that this Kerch Bridge was built according to temporary Russian state construction standards that they deliberately changed and lowered the seismic design intensity, that is, the bridge was built effectively in violation even of Russian norms prior to 2019, such earthquakes are very destructive and have a cumulative effect. They constantly affect the bridge, weaken its structures and the supports, or rather the soils under the supports on which it rests. For the Kerch Bridge this is quite bad. The impact is not a single destructive blow, but cumulative, stretched over time, prolonged. Irreversible processes are occurring for this bridge, so let us hope that under the action of such earthquakes it will be destroyed.”

Shaking from a powerful earthquake near Crimea could also spread to mainland Ukraine. According to Dmytro Hryn, they could be felt in the Odesa and Zaporizhzhia regions, although the strength of the shocks there would be significantly lower.

This topic is also important for the Mykolaiv region, since southern Ukraine has for years been living next to military threats from occupied Crimea. It is from the peninsula that Russia used military infrastructure, aviation, the fleet and logistical routes to put pressure on the southern regions.

At present, there are no official warnings of an immediate threat of a destructive earthquake for the southern regions of Ukraine. Seismologists continue to monitor activity near the Crimean peninsula.

Recall, we previously wrote:

• Mykolaiv signed a partnership agreement with the Albanian city of Durrës, which was rebuilt after a powerful earthquake
• Global warming is no joke: the “Doomsday Glacier” could even reach southern Ukraine
• Sailing season under threat: a storm destroyed the boats of young Mykolaiv athletes
• A hydrologist recorded a rare virga over the Berezan Estuary — the rain did not reach the ground
• The last day of spring in Mykolaiv region set cold records — new minimums since 1986