ISW: In 2026, Russia's pace sharply slowed — the buffer zone near Kharkiv remains out of reach

The American Institute for the Study of War reported in a new assessment that Russian forces continue offensives on discrete sections of the front but have not achieved any confirmed gains, and Ukrainian defenses are effectively holding back assaults in **2026**.

Analysts note that the Kremlin has been restructuring its forces for positional warfare over several years, but gains by Ukrainian units have significantly reduced the pace of the Russian advance in **2026** compared with previous years.

In July Russian formations launched a series of mechanized attacks on positions of the Defense Forces, but those attempts did not produce the expected result and did not change the front line, the ISW report says, published at the link here.

ISW finds no confirmation of claims by Russian military bloggers about allegedly establishing control over **Torsky** and areas near **Kostiantynivka**; at the same time Ukrainian units conducted counterattacks in the areas of **Dobropillia**, **Shevchenko** and **Myrne**, preventing the enemy from further advance.

In the north of **Kharkiv Oblast** and on the **Velykoburluk** axis Russian troops also attempted offensive actions, but their strategic goal — to create a buffer zone and to approach **Kharkiv** — remains unattainable.

The report separately notes effective strikes by Ukrainian forces on the occupiers’ rear-area targets, which complicates logistics for Russian groupings and limits their ability to build up offensive pressure.

“There is no sign that Russian forces will be able to sharply accelerate their advance or restore maneuverability on the battlefield at this stage,” ISW noted.

Previously ISW reported on the Kremlin’s preparations for a new wave of mobilization and the risk of possible mass unrest in Russia,

Previously we wrote:

• In April 2026 the Russian army (RF) for the first time in a long time lost more territory than it captured
• Ukraine is exploiting overloaded Russian air defenses: 71 drones in one night and at least 10 oil and gas targets — ISW
• Russian forces launched an offensive on the “belt of fortresses” in Donetsk Oblast, — ISW
• Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successes in the south complicated Russian plans — ISW
• Ukraine liberated 201 square kilometers in five days and achieved its largest advance in 2.5 years