Ukraine is losing people: why calls for 7–8 children per family won't save the country's demographics

Ukrainian society received another painful topic for discussion after the words of the head of the Office of Migration Policy Vasyl Voskoboynyk that, to restore the country’s population, Ukrainian women allegedly need to have 7-8 children each. Such an assessment quickly provoked a reaction from demographers, because behind it lies not only statistics but also a very sensitive question: who and how should be responsible for the country’s future after the war.

During a broadcast of the program “Superproposal” in May 2026, Vasyl Voskoboynyk spoke about the need for a sharp increase in birth rates. According to his logic, only a very large number of children in families could help Ukraine return at least to its pre-war population size, and later — approach the figure of 52 million people that was recorded at the time of independence.

However, specialists in the field are critical of such calculations. Demographers emphasize: population does not recover mechanically, and fertility depends not on slogans but on safety, income, housing, healthcare, education, accessible kindergartens, stable work and people’s confidence in the future. In conditions of full-scale war, mass migration and constant losses, talking about a simple “have more children” appears overly simplistic. This discussion was reported by the publication “Telegraf” on May 22, 2026.

Doctor of Economic Sciences and head of the Department of Research on Demographic Processes at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Iryna Kurylo notes that in the coming decades Ukraine, like most European countries, is unlikely to achieve population growth solely through natural increase. In other words, even an increase in the number of births by itself will not cover all demographic losses.

According to Iryna Kurylo, for simple generational replacement the average fertility rate needs to be at the level of 2.1–2.2 children per woman. If this indicator is higher, then one can already talk about population growth. But current Ukrainian realities are much more complicated: the country is at war, some people have died, millions were forced to leave, and many young families postpone having children due to fear, instability and uncertainty.

The director of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, also considers statements about 7-8 children unrealistic. In her view, an average rate of 2.5–3 children per woman would be sufficient and much closer to reality to improve the situation. At the same time, this is not a requirement for every family, but an average level for the country.

Ella Libanova separately emphasizes that fertility at the level of 7-8 children per woman is today almost non-existent in the world. For modern states, especially European ones, this is not a practical target but rather a statistical extreme.

International demographic data also show that the world has long been moving toward lower fertility. According to an infographic by Visual Capitalist, the global average is about 2.25 children per woman. At the same time, in Europe, China, Japan and South Korea fertility remains among the lowest — 0.7–1.6 children per woman. The highest rates are mostly recorded in African countries.

Against this background, Ukraine’s position looks particularly worrying. In the global fertility ranking our country is among the last — at 191st place. For a country that is simultaneously experiencing war, loss of people, labor migration and population aging, this means serious risks for the economy, the military, the social system, pensions and the future of communities.

A separate indicator is population size. According to the All-Ukrainian census of 2001, Ukraine had over 48.4 million people. After 2014, and especially after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the demographic picture worsened sharply: part of the territory fell under occupation, millions of citizens left abroad, and the war takes Ukrainian lives every day.

That is why the phrase about 7-8 children provoked such a strong reaction. For many women and families it sounds not like a well-thought-out state strategy but like an attempt to shift the burden of the demographic crisis onto Ukrainian women. All the more so since the decision to have a child depends not on officials’ instructions but on real living conditions.

Demographers are essentially talking about a different path: Ukraine needs not a campaign of pressure on women but a systemic policy. This includes bringing people back from abroad, supporting young families, affordable housing, stable jobs, quality healthcare, kindergartens, schools, social assistance, security and victory in the war against Russian aggression.

Without these conditions even the loudest statements about fertility will remain political phrases. And the demographic crisis cannot be overcome solely by calling on women to have more children when the state does not guarantee families sufficient reasons to be confident about tomorrow.

Previously we wrote:

• Only 22–25 million in territory controlled by Ukraine, – Ministry of Social Policy
• In 25 years Ukraine lost a third of its population – the largest decline in Europe
• Mykolaiv region is dying out: deaths already exceed births
• The country of widows and orphans: what is happening with Ukraine’s demography
• In Mykolaiv region, 2025 mortality almost quadrupled births