Operation "Vivaldi" near Lyman may complicate Russia's advance on Sloviansk — ISW

The Ukrainian offensive operation “Vivaldi” in the Lyman direction may complicate further Russian offensive actions toward Sloviansk from the east. This is stated in an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for October 1, 2026.

The ISW notes that Ukrainian actions in the Lyman direction not only affected the Russian plan for a broad envelopment of the Ukrainian fortified belt from the directions of Lyman and Dobropillia, but may also complicate further Russian attempts to advance into the northern part of that defensive area.

This refers, in particular, to the prospect of a Russian advance toward Sloviansk and other towns of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Russian war bloggers cited by the ISW assess the situation in this sector as becoming more difficult for Russian forces. One of them on September 30, 2026 wrote not only about Lyman but also about a deterioration of the situation on the Sloviansk axis.

According to ISW’s cited assessments, Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions near Dibrova and Ozerne. Russian sources also report attempts by Ukrainian forces to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and to attack Russian positions near Pyskunivka and Kryva Luka from the north.

The situation near the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal is mentioned separately. According to a Russian blogger cited by the ISW, Ukrainian forces are conducting counterattacks in the areas of Yurkivka, Malynivka and Tykhonivka, while Russian troops are finding it difficult to reinforce their positions due to problems with crossings over the canal. The General Staff of Ukraine also reported fighting on adjacent sectors. In particular, the September 30 report said the Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks on the Lyman and Sloviansk directions, as well as in the area of Yurkivka.

Russian sources also wrote about Ukrainian counterattacks in the area of Ray-Oleksandrivka. They claim Ukrainian forces are preventing Russian units from advancing toward Mykolaivka. At the same time, reports by Russian war bloggers about the course of fighting are their assessments and statements that are not independently confirmed in all cases.

Military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets also drew attention to the impact of Ukrainian actions near Lyman on subsequent Russian offensive plans, publishing relevant assessments on September 28 and September 29, 2026. In his public analyses, his conclusion was that the Russian grouping cannot accomplish its main objectives on the Sloviansk axis at the planned scale.

“The elimination of the Russian salient in the Lyman area during operation “Vivaldi” will likely complicate Russian offensive efforts toward Sloviansk from the east,” ISW formulated its assessment.

Separately, on October 1 a Ukrainian-side statement reported the completion of the formation of a new position on the Sloviansk axis. According to the military official, it could become the basis for a subsequent large-scale operation. At the same time, the ISW notes that the precise location of this position is unknown. Analysts have also not determined whether it is directly related to Russian bloggers’ assessments of the effects of operation “Vivaldi”.

One notable element of the operation was the use of Soviet BTR-60 armored vehicles, which the Third Army Corps modified into remotely controlled ground strike systems. According to the corps itself, such vehicles were used as kamikaze assets to strike fortified Russian positions during operation “Vivaldi”. BTR-60s modified in this way were employed to destroy Russian fortifications.

The Third Army Corps also reported other results of the operation, including the liberation of settlements in the Lyman area and taking Russian servicemen prisoner. These figures come from reports by Ukrainian military command.

At the same time, the Defense Forces continue combat operations in the Sumy region. According to assessments cited in the article, Ukrainian units advanced north of Korchakivka. Russian-source claims of their own successes in the north of Sumy Oblast do not have sufficient independent confirmation.

Thus, according to the ISW, operation “Vivaldi” matters not only for the immediate situation around Lyman but also for Russia’s ability to develop a further advance on Sloviansk from the east. At the same time, the specific further development of hostilities remains dependent on the situation on the battlefield.