Sugar factories in Ukraine may end the 2026/2027 season with production of 1.1–1.2 million tonnes. In previous years, production stood at around 1.8 million tonnes. This forecast was announced by Ukrtsukor association head Yana Kavushevska on the “Minselo” podcast. According to youtube.com.
She considers the upper end of the forecast optimistic. At the same time, no sugar shortage is expected for Ukrainian consumers: the country’s monthly demand is approximately 65,000 tonnes. The projected new-crop output will be enough to meet domestic consumption and build up reserves.
Far less product will be available for export. Due to the deteriorating quality of sugar beets, exports are expected to total 200,000–300,000 tonnes. By comparison, in previous seasons Ukraine exported:
- around 580,000 tonnes of sugar in the 2024/2025 season;
- approximately 646,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season.
The amount of sugar sold on foreign markets in the new season will depend on the operation of seaports and trade terms with the European Union. Ukrtsukor hopes negotiations with EU partners will make it possible to review quotas for Ukraine.
The industry’s current difficulties were preceded by a sugar surplus. As Yana Kavushevska explained, in previous years supply exceeded demand, forcing factories to sell their product below cost. Some facilities also operated beyond the standard 100 days. This increased expenses and made it harder to store raw materials.
In the 2025/2026 season, sugar beets covered just 162,000 hectares in Ukraine—the smallest area since independence. And in May 2026, the price of sugar fell to 22 hryvnias per kilogram, reaching a four-year low.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club had previously published a separate forecast for the 2025/2026 season: production was expected to reach 1.3 million tonnes, down 26% from 2024. The main reasons cited for the decline were export restrictions to the EU and challenging logistics.
In the calendar year 2025, Ukraine exported 463,700 tonnes of sugar. The total value of these shipments was $222 million.
We previously reported:
- A bumper harvest but no profit: wheat prices in Odesa region nearly halved
- In the first 20 days of September, agricultural exports rose by almost 50% despite port restrictions
- “I wanted a kilo of sugar and a pack of salt but couldn’t buy them” — who emptied the shelves at ATB
- Nearly two weeks without ships in Odesa: blockade disrupts 30 million tonnes of exports and threatens losses of up to $3 billion
- Vegetable and fruit prices fell in Mykolaiv region in August, while dairy products and pork fat became more expensive
