Putin does not plan to stop the war against Ukraine, U.S. intelligence said
U.S. intelligence reports that the Kremlin is confident in the advance of its forces on the front and is not considering halting the aggression
Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to stop the war against Ukraine, as he believes his forces are maintaining advances on the front; this is stated in the annual report of the U.S. intelligence community on global threats for 2026, published in the United States (document).
The authors of the assessment emphasize that Moscow sees no reason to cease hostilities despite significant losses and material costs. According to them, the Kremlin is oriented toward a protracted confrontation, calculating on the exhaustion of Ukraine and its partners rather than a rapid breakthrough on the battlefield.
The report also warns that the continuation of the war increases the risk of a wider clash with NATO, including incidents that could escalate uncontrollably. It notes that certain scenarios could create a direct threat to the security of the United States itself, which is being given particular attention in Washington.
A separate section assesses the situation on the front. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the pace of Russian troop advances in 2025 was the lowest in more than a century. At the same time, according to Black Bird Group, in early 2026 Russia was losing more territory than it was gaining, indicating a shift in the balance in favor of Ukrainian defense in some areas.
Factors increasing the risk include Moscow‘s nuclear rhetoric and the demonstrative use of dual-use missiles. Added to this is support from China, including supplies of dual-use technologies and goods, as well as heavy losses by the Russian military, which, however, do not affect the Kremlin’s strategic intentions.
Analysts conclude that the Kremlin’s current logic is a long war of attrition with constant pressure on Ukraine and the West, the gradual achievement of political and military goals, and a willingness to ignore losses and international condemnation.
Earlier we wrote:
- Zelensky warns of a bad premonition regarding peace talks with Russia
- The war in Ukraine has turned into an exhausting confrontation
- Zelensky: the war may last until summer 2026 because Russia has not yet fully felt the impact of sanctions
- The price of fear: how the US saved the Russian army from defeat in Kherson
- The ceasefire trap: how the West mistakenly gives Putin a chance to continue the war
