Ukraine’s counteroffensive foiled Russia’s attempts to encircle cities in Donbas

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the north of Donbas thwarted Russian forces’ attempts to encircle cities that remain under Ukrainian control. Overall, Russia’s advance has slowed sharply.

Western analysts estimate that Russian forces’ territorial gains in 2026 were only slightly greater than their losses. This estimate differs significantly from the Russian Defense Ministry’s claim that more than 5,000 square kilometers had been captured.

The Finnish group Black Bird Group identified September as Russia’s worst month for net territorial gains since June 2023.

According to Western analysts, during Operation Vivaldi, Russian forces lost dozens of square kilometers of territory. In the south of Donbas, they continue to attack, but Ukrainian forces are so far holding back their advance.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that all of Donbas will be captured soon. However, even Russian military bloggers doubt that the army will be able to encircle the region’s key cities.

We previously reported:

• Ukraine’s counteroffensive thwarted Russia’s plan to encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north
• Russia is being worn down on the front: Vance says its offensive capabilities are nearly exhausted
• Western analysts: the ratio of losses between Ukraine’s Armed Forces and the Russian army shocks the world
• Ukraine’s counteroffensive near Dobropillia: what is happening on the frontline?
• Ukraine’s Armed Forces expanded their foothold in Kursk Oblast, while Russia advanced in Donbas