Putin refuses to compromise: the Kremlin demands four regions and that Ukraine give up NATO
ISW called Russia's goals detached from reality
Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to make substantial compromises in negotiations to end the war and continues to rely on achieving maximalist goals by military means. That was the conclusion reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) after a visit to Moscow by U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin is maintaining the demands it made back in June 2024. These include the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, the so-called “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, and Kyiv’s renunciation of joining NATO.
“The Kremlin still does not want to make any substantial compromises,” said Putin’s aide Yuriy Ushakov after meeting with the American delegation.
Analysts believe that Russian military officers are misleading Putin, exaggerating their successes and depicting Ukrainian defenses as supposedly crumbling. This, the ISW believes, reinforces his confidence that the Russian army will be able to capture the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
At the same time, the report stresses that Russia will not be able to meet that projected timeline. Since October 2025 Russian forces have been fighting for Kostiantynivka, but for 11 months have been unable to establish control over it. In addition, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka remain out of their reach.
“Putin’s fantasy about the battlefield remains detached from Ukraine’s real defensive capabilities and Russia’s degraded offensive capabilities,” the ISW report says.
According to the institute’s calculations, the current rate of advance by Russian forces is about 2.91 square kilometers per day. If the pace does not change, the occupation of the remaining territory of the Donetsk region would only be completed on 2 October 2032 — and even then only if Russia is able to achieve that goal at all.
Earlier we wrote:
- The U.S. raised the prospect of new talks between Ukraine and Russia: a meeting could be announced soon
- In Kyiv, officials discussed returning to trilateral talks and a winter package
- Russia attacked on several fronts but did not gain confirmed successes
- The visit of Trump’s special envoys to Kyiv and Moscow was put in doubt due to safety concerns
- The Ukraine–Russia talks are stalled: an ambassador named the side blocking the agreements
