82% believe in Ukraine's victory, but only 22% expect the war to end by the end of the year

The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians – 82% – are convinced that in the war Ukraine will ultimately prevail. At the same time, 59% of respondents are completely confident in victory, and another 23% rather lean toward that scenario. Expectations for a quick end to hostilities are much more restrained: only 22% of respondents believe the war could end at least by the end of 2026.

On 10 August 2026 reported the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology based on a nationwide survey of socio-political sentiments conducted from 16 to 31 July 2026.

When asked who will ultimately win the war, 59% of Ukrainians answered that they are fully convinced of Ukraine‘s victory, and another 23% rather consider that outcome most likely. Thus, overall 82% of respondents expect Ukraine to win.

Only 3% of respondents believe that Russia will win the war. Another 16% could not decide on their answer. KIIS notes that the figures presented in the study are rounded to whole numbers, so in some cases their sum may not be exactly 100%.

At the same time, Ukrainians’ assessment of the current situation directly on the battlefield proved to be much more cautious.

Only 7% of respondents believe that the situation at the front currently favors Russia. In contrast, 39% are convinced that the advantage lies with Ukraine.

Another 32% of respondents do not see a noticeable advantage for either side, and 22% could not determine an assessment of the situation on the battlefield. Thus, Ukrainians’ faith in ultimate victory is much higher than their assessment of the current situation at the front.

Together with high faith in victory, the majority of Ukrainians no longer expect a quick end to the war.

Only 22% of respondents believe that hostilities may end at least by the end of 2026. Another 13% expect the war to end in the first half of 2027.

In contrast, 39% of Ukrainians believe the war will end only in the second half of 2027 or even later. A significant share of respondents – 26% – could not predict when this might happen at all.

In other words, the survey results show two moods at once: Ukrainians mostly maintain confidence in the state’s final victory, but at the same time increasingly do not associate it with the prospect of a quick end to the war.

The KIIS study was conducted using a mixed method. In total, sociologists conducted 1808 interviews: 905 respondents were interviewed by phone, and another 903 during face-to-face interviews using tablets. The study covered adult citizens residing in territory under the control of the Government of Ukraine.

The formal statistical margin of error for the full sample of 1808 respondents under normal conditions does not exceed 3.5%. KIIS separately emphasizes that in wartime systematic deviation may be added to the usual statistical error, however the obtained results, according to the sociologists, remain sufficiently representative for the analysis of public sentiments.

Earlier we wrote:

• Fedorov took first place in the balance of Ukrainians’ trust: Zelensky — fourth in the ranking
• Ukrainians trust Zelensky, but even more those associated with the front
• A majority of Ukrainians would support a peace agreement with Russia in exchange for EU accession
• Elections during the war: only 10% of Ukrainians support the idea
• Painful compromises: 72% of Ukrainians are ready to freeze the front for the sake of security — KIIS survey