The Russian army continues offensive actions, but its pace of advance has fallen to the lowest levels in the past year. According to RBC-Ukraine, the occupiers are spending increasingly more personnel but are achieving much more modest results on the battlefield.
There are currently no major breakthroughs on the front. The war remains largely positional, and local advances by both sides do not produce the operational effect the Kremlin expected. The Kremlin’s most important objective remains the complete capture of the Donetsk Oblast, in particular the advance to the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka agglomeration. However, in some sectors the Russians have managed to advance only a few kilometers in recent months.
One reason for the enemy’s slowdown is the rising losses. According to information from interlocutors of RBC-Ukraine, Russian forces lose about 35,000 people killed and severely wounded each month, and the recruitment of contract soldiers barely covers these losses. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that the cost of advances for the RF has risen significantly: while in October the enemy lost 67 servicemen per square kilometer, in April it was already 179.
A second important change has been the mass use of drones by Ukraine. Drones increasingly destroy Russian assault groups while they are still approaching positions, and also strike logistics, depots, command posts, airfields, locations where equipment and personnel concentrate in the enemy’s operational rear. According to RBC-Ukraine estimates, about four months ago the Defense Forces began systematically working on this zone.
Separate pressure on Russia is created by long-range strikes into its territory. Among Ukraine’s priority targets are facilities of the fuel and energy complex, oil infrastructure, defense industry enterprises, production of precision weapons and explosives. In this way Ukraine strikes both at the Kremlin’s revenues and at its ability to continue the war.
According to the publication, Ukraine is already close to parity with the RF in the number of launched long-range UAVs, and over 10–12% of Ukrainian drones consistently reach their designated targets. By comparison, among Russian “Shaheds” that are not shot down by air defenses, only about 3–5% reach their targets. Against this backdrop the Kremlin threatens “sequential and systemic strikes” on Kyiv. Sources at RBC-Ukraine believe Moscow may pursue several goals at once: revenge for Ukrainian strikes on the Moscow region, an attempt to weaken Ukraine‘s defensive capabilities, and pressure on society to force Kyiv into peace on Russian terms.
According to the publication’s interlocutors, the RF has the capacity for massive missile-and-drone attacks roughly every 5–10 days, taking into account time for reconnaissance and target analysis. The biggest problem for Ukraine remains the shortage of means to counter ballistic missiles.
The authorities admit that the “hot” phase of the war may end roughly by November 2026. Reasons for such expectations include a change in the front-line dynamics, pressure from Ukrainian strikes on the RF’s rear, Russia’s economic problems, and the political calendar in the United States, where November 3 is the date for Congressional elections. At the same time RBC-Ukraine emphasizes: a truce is not guaranteed. Russia so far does not show readiness to abandon its goals, and Putin may try to resort to a new mobilization, widen the war, or intensify terror against Ukrainian cities.
A source from RBC-Ukraine explained that the current moment looks cautiously optimistic for Ukraine, but does not mean the automatic end of the war.
“If we are to believe in anything, now is a good moment to believe – the dynamics are starting to turn in our favor,” the publication’s source in the authorities said.
Previously we wrote:
- 164 robotic strikes replaced 2,300 fighters: CNN showed how Ukraine conducts a networked drone war
- Ukraine strikes Russia’s war economy: refineries, air defenses, command posts and drone production hit
- Zelensky at a meeting with Servant of the People: the hot phase of the war may end by November this year
- Hellish night in Kyiv: dozens of rockets and hundreds of drones struck across the capital
- Five scenarios of an RF offensive: Ukraine strengthens northern defenses
