By the end of 2026, inflation in Ukraine could rise to 12.5%. This more pessimistic forecast is included in the National Bank of Ukraine’s October Inflation Report. Over the next two years, the regulator expects the pace of price increases for goods and services to gradually slow.
The effects of Russian attacks are making a significant contribution to rising prices. Damage to production facilities and logistics infrastructure is increasing businesses’ costs of manufacturing and delivering goods. According to the NBU, the consequences of the attacks alone could add approximately 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation.
Another reason for revising the forecast was rising fuel prices. In addition, inflationary pressure could increase toward the end of the year as budget spending expands.
Going forward, the National Bank forecasts a gradual improvement and the following inflation figures:
- by the end of 2027 — a slowdown to 7.3%;
- in 2028 — a return to the target level of 5%.
According to the regulator, the pace of price increases will be curbed by the reduced impact of rising fuel costs, slower wage growth, and the NBU’s monetary policy measures.
Along with its inflation forecast, the regulator revised its expectations for economic development. Its forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s real GDP is now as follows:
- 2026 — a contraction of 0.4%;
- 2027 — growth of 0.4%;
- 2028 — growth of 2.2%.
We previously reported:
- Eggs rose in price by 40.4%, lard by 22.2%: September prices in Mykolaiv Oblast
- Fuel at 100 hryvnias is no longer a scare story: what is pushing gas station prices to a new record
- IMF: Ukraine ranks third in Europe in projected growth, at 3.8% a year
- Economy Ministry forecasts Ukraine’s GDP to fall by 41%
- Gas for households to rise in price by 280%, heating by 66%
