Russia may be preparing a large-scale campaign of strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this autumn and winter. According to The New York Times, the Ukrainian side handed European partners an intercepted document that describes a plan of methodical attacks intended to try to collapse Ukraine’s power system.
According to the publication, a copy of the document was obtained by The New York Times. The document was presented to European partners in Paris by Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, Denys Shmyhal, about two weeks ago. The document is dated August 2026 and is written in Russian. It describes a campaign using up to 1000 missiles, drones, and aerial bombs. Potential targets listed include electrical substations, hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, and boiler houses.
The most dangerous part of the document, the publication says, is the plans to attack electrical distribution nodes near Ukrainian nuclear power plants. These are the facilities through which the nuclear power plants are connected to the power system.
According to The New York Times, the document speaks of an intention to force the shutdown of three operating Ukrainian nuclear power plants by striking the corresponding electrical nodes. Such facilities are located less than 1.6 kilometers from the reactors.
Separately, the document allegedly foresees strikes on Ukraine’s water supply systems. Possible targets named include pumping stations and water treatment plants. For such attacks, the publication says, dozens of ballistic missiles and guided aerial bombs could be used. Separate plans are allegedly developed for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. According to the document, the aim could be to cut electricity supplies to these cities by 90%, reduce heat supply by 90%, and seriously disrupt sewage systems.
The New York Times notes that it could not independently verify the authenticity of the document. At the same time, the publication recalls that Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated his intention to carry out a large-scale campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter, calling it a response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil-refining facilities.
The document envisages several stages of a possible attack. First, it plans to put out of service substations in western Ukraine through which the country imports electricity from Europe. The second stage could be strikes on hydroelectric power plants. The third — an attempt to put three operating nuclear power plants out of service.
According to the authors of the document, such strikes are intended to result in the loss of almost 15 gigawatts of generating capacity — roughly the amount Ukraine had at the end of the summer.
Against the backdrop of preparations for the heating season, Ukraine is strengthening protection of its energy infrastructure, repairing damaged facilities, and creating additional backup capacity. Earlier, Denys Shmyhal said that Ukraine is preparing for the autumn-winter period and is working to enhance the resilience of the power system.
Experts cited by The New York Times emphasize that protective and recovery measures for the power system can mitigate the consequences of possible attacks, but do not guarantee full protection against large-scale strikes. At the same time, whether Russia will fully implement the strategy described in the document and what its consequences would be is not currently known.
Earlier we wrote:
- So apartments won’t freeze again this winter: backup power promised again in the Korabelnyi district
- Shmyhal in Mykolaiv: the region will be reinforced with equipment before the heating season
- Power in reserve: German partners delivered a new shipment of generators to Mykolaiv
- Mykolaiv received generators for the next winter with support from the “Blue-Yellow Cross” fund
- Sienkevych promises uninterrupted heating of apartment blocks as soon as next winter?
