61% of Ukrainians categorically oppose handing Donbas over to Russia in exchange for security guarantees — poll

October 8–16, 2026, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted a nationwide public opinion poll, “Omnibus,” adding questions about war and peace on its own initiative. A total of 1,031 adult Ukrainian citizens living in government-controlled territory were surveyed. Residents of occupied territories and Ukrainians who left the country after February 24, 2022, were not included in the sample.

According to KIIS, 61% of respondents categorically reject transferring the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and Europe. Another 35% generally consider this option acceptable, although most of them see it as a difficult decision. 4% of respondents were undecided.

The poll showed that public opinion had changed little compared with late July and early August 2026. Sociologists also compared responses from before and after the announcement of the so-called “diesel deal” and the subsequent pressure on Ukraine. Among those surveyed on October 8–9, 2026, categorically opposed territorial concessions were 57%, compared with 62% among those surveyed from October 10–16.

KIIS noted that, formally, this difference is within the margin of error. At the same time, sociologists saw no increase in Ukrainians’ willingness to accept the proposal.

“Formally, the difference is within the margin of error, but we can see that (at least) so far, the pressure campaign on Ukraine has not led to greater willingness to accept this proposal,” the press release says.

Across all regions, a majority or at least half of respondents oppose this scenario. The largest share of those who would consider transferring territory to Russia is in eastern Ukraine, mainly in Kharkiv Oblast: 45% would be willing to approve the proposal, while 51% categorically oppose it.

In the South, 60% of respondents categorically reject this option; in the Lower Dnipro region, the figure is 61%. Despite the recent large-scale bombardment of Kyiv with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, most residents of the capital—66%—categorically oppose this proposal. In fact, among all regions, Kyiv has the highest share of people who categorically oppose it.