Judging by the garbage, there are already half a million of us: Senkevych estimates the population of frontline Mykolaiv

Around 500,000 people may currently live in Mykolaiv. According to a preliminary estimate by Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych, the city’s population has already returned to its pre-war level and may have even surpassed it. The mayor said this in an interview with Apostrophe, published on October 8, 2026.

However, there are currently no exact figures for the number of people actually living in the city. As Oleksandr Sienkevych explained, indirect indicators—particularly water consumption and the amount of household waste collected—can be used to estimate the population.

“Based on the amount of waste collected and the volume of water consumed, we can see that the number of residents has returned to its pre-war level. That is, around half a million residents,” the mayor said.

By comparison, before the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, approximately 480,000 people lived in Mykolaiv.

One reason for the increase in the city’s population is the arrival of people forced to leave their homes because of the hostilities. According to Oleksandr Sienkevych, 55,000 internally displaced people are officially registered in Mykolaiv. However, the actual number of displaced people may be higher, since not everyone who has moved to the city applies for official status. According to the mayor, most of the newcomers are from Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, including the city of Kherson itself.

The mayor also stressed that the situation in Mykolaiv is significantly different from that in neighboring Kherson, which remains under the constant threat of Russian shelling.

The figure of 500,000 residents cited by the mayor remains an estimate. It is based on indirect indicators, not an official population count. Therefore, the claim that Mykolaiv’s population has already surpassed its pre-war level should currently be viewed as a preliminary estimate by the city authorities, rather than a confirmed statistical fact.

We previously reported:

• 430,000 people remain in Mykolaiv, but a third of them are displaced
• Displaced people replaced those who left: Mykolaiv is full again
• Mykolaiv region is getting older; more than 100,000 residents have left Mykolaiv, says Kim
• A quarter of Kherson is in Mykolaiv: displaced people refuse the housing offered to them
• Water shortages and offline schooling: Mykolaiv has two problems, says Mayor Sienkevych