"Those who wanted to leave because of the war have already done so": demographer on migration

There are currently no signs that, ahead of winter, Ukrainians will massively leave for European countries. Data from open sources and sociological surveys do not indicate a serious increase in migration intentions. This was said in an interview RBC-Ukraine by a migration expert, senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine Oleksiy Poznyak. According to him, most people who were ready to leave Ukraine because of the war have already left in previous years.

“Those who were inclined to leave Ukraine because of the war have already done so”, — Poznyak noted.

Those who remained in Ukraine or returned after a short stay abroad are mostly inclined to stay in the country unless the situation significantly worsens. The expert allows that an intensification of shelling and a deterioration of conditions in winter could increase the number of people willing to leave. At the same time, he considers unlikely a repeat of the large-scale migration wave of 2022.

Earlier we wrote:

• 5.6 million Ukrainians are abroad, fewer than half want to return
• Only 22–25 million in Ukrainian-controlled territory, – Ministry of Social Policy
• Around one million conscription-age men from Ukraine are in the EU
• “Reserve+” will now be needed not only in Ukraine: the EU changed temporary protection rules for men
• Ukraine’s borders are seeing a record passenger flow of over 100,000 people per day