{"id":634271,"date":"2026-11-07T09:23:01","date_gmt":"2026-11-07T07:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/11\/634271\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-11-07T09:38:39","modified_gmt":"2026-11-07T07:38:39","slug":"inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/11\/634271\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By the end of <strong>2026<\/strong>, inflation in <strong>Ukraine<\/strong> could rise to <strong>12.5%<\/strong>. This more pessimistic forecast is included in the National Bank of Ukraine\u2019s <strong>October Inflation Report<\/strong>. Over the next <strong>two years<\/strong>, the regulator expects the pace of price increases for goods and services to gradually slow.<\/p>\n<p>The effects of Russian attacks are making a significant contribution to rising prices. Damage to production facilities and logistics infrastructure is increasing businesses\u2019 costs of manufacturing and delivering goods. According to <strong>the NBU<\/strong>, the consequences of the attacks alone could add approximately <strong>0.7 percentage points<\/strong> to annual inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Another reason for revising the forecast was rising fuel prices. In addition, inflationary pressure could increase toward the end of the year as budget spending expands.<\/p>\n<p>Going forward, <strong>the National Bank<\/strong> forecasts a gradual improvement and the following inflation figures:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>by the end of <strong>2027<\/strong> \u2014 a slowdown to <strong>7.3%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li>in <strong>2028<\/strong> \u2014 a return to the target level of <strong>5%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to the regulator, the pace of price increases will be curbed by the reduced impact of rising fuel costs, slower wage growth, and the <strong>NBU\u2019s<\/strong> monetary policy measures.<\/p>\n<p>Along with its inflation forecast, the regulator revised its expectations for economic development. Its forecast for the growth of <strong>Ukraine\u2019s<\/strong> real GDP is now as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>2026<\/strong> \u2014 a contraction of <strong>0.4%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li><strong>2027<\/strong> \u2014 growth of <strong>0.4%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li><strong>2028<\/strong> \u2014 growth of <strong>2.2%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- website-article-source:6a21cc39b131194a8d713373 --><\/p>\n<p><strong>We previously reported:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/10\/626219\/egg-prices-rose-by-40-4-and-lard-by-22-2-september-prices-in-mykolaiv-oblast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Eggs rose in price by 40.4%, lard by 22.2%: September prices in Mykolaiv Oblast<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/599954\/fuel-at-100-hryvnias-is-no-longer-a-scare-what-s-pushing-gas-station-prices-to-a-new-record\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fuel at 100 hryvnias is no longer a scare story: what is pushing gas station prices to a new record<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/597104\/imf-ukraine-third-in-europe-by-projected-growth-3-8-per-year\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IMF: Ukraine ranks third in Europe in projected growth, at 3.8% a year<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2022\/12\/373323\/minekonomiki-prognozuie-padinnya-vvp-ukraini-do-41\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economy Ministry forecasts Ukraine\u2019s GDP to fall by 41%<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/ru\/2015\/02\/225609\/gaz-dlya-naseleniya-podorozhaet-na-280-teplo-na-66\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gas for households to rise in price by 280%, heating by 66%<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udcc8 The consequences of Russian shelling alone could add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods.<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.4% this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12394,"featured_media":634209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tstyn_error":"","tie_post_sub_title":"Higher fuel prices and Russian attacks intensify pressure on prices"},"categories":[4612,4578],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-634271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic","category-society"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026 - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u041d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0435\u0432\u0430 c\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ud83d\udcc8 The consequences of Russian shelling alone could add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods. \ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.4% this year. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/11\/634271\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\ud83d\udcc8 The consequences of Russian shelling alone could add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods. \ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.4% this year. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/11\/634271\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u041d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0435\u0432\u0430 c\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/korabelovinfo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-11-07T07:23:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-07T07:38:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/news-7c5810446696ebb6fb36cf0c-92526782e7eb7c45.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"584\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"342\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Modern\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a56bea94f434cf219bea48ae0ad2db79\"},\"headline\":\"Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-07T07:23:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-11-07T07:38:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":286,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/news-7c5810446696ebb6fb36cf0c-92526782e7eb7c45.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Economic\",\"Society\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/\",\"name\":\"Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026 - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u041d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0435\u0432\u0430 c\u0435\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044f\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/634271\\\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/news-7c5810446696ebb6fb36cf0c-92526782e7eb7c45.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-07T07:23:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-11-07T07:38:39+00:00\",\"description\":\"\ud83d\udcc8 The consequences of Russian shelling alone could add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods. \ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. 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Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods. \ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. Meanwhile, real GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.4% this year. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/11\/634271\/inflation-may-reach-12-5-national-bank-downgrades-its-forecast-for-2026\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Inflation May Reach 12.5%: National Bank Downgrades Its Forecast for 2026","og_description":"\ud83d\udcc8 The consequences of Russian shelling alone could add around 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Attacks on businesses and logistics are forcing companies to spend more on producing and delivering goods. \ud83d\udcb8 Higher fuel prices are among the reasons for rising costs, while an additional risk is increased government spending at the end of the year. The NBU forecasts that inflation will slow to 7.3% in 2027 and reach its target of 5% in 2028. 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