{"id":611849,"date":"2026-09-04T13:04:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T10:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/09\/611849\/demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:05:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T10:05:02","slug":"demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/09\/611849\/demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved\/","title":{"rendered":"\"Demographic catastrophe\": only 243 thousand first-graders in Ukraine - the number of children in schools has halved"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\" data-start=\"122\" data-end=\"468\">In <strong data-start=\"124\" data-end=\"154\">the 2026\/2027 school year<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"174\" data-end=\"185\">in Ukraine<\/strong> <strong data-start=\"192\" data-end=\"209\">243 398 children<\/strong> entered first grade &#8211; this is the lowest figure in at least the last <strong data-start=\"256\" data-end=\"268\">12 years<\/strong>. For comparison, in the <strong data-start=\"288\" data-end=\"318\">2018\/2019 school year<\/strong> there were <strong data-start=\"339\" data-end=\"355\">454,9 thousand<\/strong> first-graders. That means the current intake is only a little more than half of that level.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"470\" data-end=\"795\">According to the Ministry of Education and Science, overall on <strong data-start=\"517\" data-end=\"540\">1 September 2026<\/strong> the school year began for more than <strong data-start=\"572\" data-end=\"597\">3,5 million pupils<\/strong> in <strong data-start=\"600\" data-end=\"617\">11 940 schools<\/strong>, and the educational process is provided by over <strong data-start=\"656\" data-end=\"679\">366 thousand teachers<\/strong>. Another roughly <strong data-start=\"692\" data-end=\"723\">315 thousand Ukrainian children<\/strong> are currently studying outside the country.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"470\" data-end=\"795\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-611836 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/photo_2026-09-04_09-36-561.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"797\" data-end=\"912\">The trend in the number of first-graders over recent years shows a prolonged decline:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"914\" data-end=\"1204\">\n<li data-section-id=\"8smh0b\" data-start=\"914\" data-end=\"949\"><strong data-start=\"916\" data-end=\"929\">2014\/2015<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"932\" data-end=\"948\">411,6 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1mgsp79\" data-start=\"950\" data-end=\"985\"><strong data-start=\"952\" data-end=\"965\">2018\/2019<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"968\" data-end=\"984\">454,9 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1ei7c6x\" data-start=\"986\" data-end=\"1021\"><strong data-start=\"988\" data-end=\"1001\">2021\/2022<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"1004\" data-end=\"1020\">403,5 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1we1uh\" data-start=\"1022\" data-end=\"1057\"><strong data-start=\"1024\" data-end=\"1037\">2022\/2023<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"1040\" data-end=\"1056\">322,3 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"11c7bq2\" data-start=\"1058\" data-end=\"1093\"><strong data-start=\"1060\" data-end=\"1073\">2023\/2024<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"1076\" data-end=\"1092\">314,3 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"2fdr74\" data-start=\"1094\" data-end=\"1132\"><strong data-start=\"1096\" data-end=\"1109\">2024\/2025<\/strong> &#8211; less than <strong data-start=\"1118\" data-end=\"1131\">280 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1mvjo7v\" data-start=\"1133\" data-end=\"1168\"><strong data-start=\"1135\" data-end=\"1148\">2025\/2026<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"1151\" data-end=\"1167\">252,5 thousand<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1i88zbh\" data-start=\"1169\" data-end=\"1204\"><strong data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1184\">2026\/2027<\/strong> &#8211; <strong data-start=\"1187\" data-end=\"1203\">243,4 thousand<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1206\" data-end=\"1599\">The largest number of first-graders during this period was in the <strong data-start=\"1257\" data-end=\"1287\">2018\/2019 school year<\/strong>. Analysts note that the number of children entering school largely mirrors the demographic situation from about six years earlier. For example, in <strong data-start=\"1449\" data-end=\"1462\">2012<\/strong>, when one of the demographic peaks was recorded, <strong data-start=\"1538\" data-end=\"1560\">520,7 thousand children<\/strong> were born in <strong data-start=\"1515\" data-end=\"1526\">Ukraine<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1601\" data-end=\"1968\">The current statistics are simultaneously affected by falling birth rates and the full-scale war, due to which a significant number of Ukrainian families with children left abroad or ended up in temporarily occupied territories. As of <strong data-start=\"1824\" data-end=\"1845\">1 January 2026<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"1878\" data-end=\"1895\">315 061 students<\/strong> were outside <strong data-start=\"1856\" data-end=\"1867\">Ukraine<\/strong>, the Ministry of Education and Science&#8217;s monitoring report indicates.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2032\" data-end=\"2310\">Economist <strong data-start=\"2092\" data-end=\"2107\">Oleksiy Kusch<\/strong> drew attention to the sharp reduction in the number of children. He compared the current situation with the <strong data-start=\"2141\" data-end=\"2171\">2013\/2014 school year<\/strong>, when, according to his data, more than <strong data-start=\"2251\" data-end=\"2271\">434 thousand children<\/strong> entered first grades of Ukrainian schools. The economist also pointed to the total fertility rate. In <strong data-start=\"2383\" data-end=\"2396\">2013<\/strong> it was indeed about <strong data-start=\"2426\" data-end=\"2455\">1,51 children per woman<\/strong>, as confirmed by State Statistics. Under the full-scale war the indicator fell to a historically low level of about <strong data-start=\"2576\" data-end=\"2583\">0,9<\/strong>. The UN Population Fund cites a similar level.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2683\" data-end=\"3167\">According to <strong data-start=\"2694\" data-end=\"2710\">Oleksiy Kusch<\/strong>&#8216;s model, if one were to project the demographic indicators of the <strong data-start=\"2757\" data-end=\"2776\">2013\/2014 years<\/strong> over a <strong data-start=\"2789\" data-end=\"2801\">30-year<\/strong> period, the country would obtain a new generation numbering about <strong data-start=\"2858\" data-end=\"2880\">13 million people<\/strong>. Approximately <strong data-start=\"2892\" data-end=\"2908\">6.5 million<\/strong> of them would be women, who at a fertility rate of about <strong data-start=\"2976\" data-end=\"2983\">1.5<\/strong> could give birth to over <strong data-start=\"3007\" data-end=\"3029\">10 million children<\/strong>. Population decline under such a scenario, in his view, would still continue but much more slowly.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3169\" data-end=\"3752\">For current indicators the economist obtains a much darker picture. By his calculations, over the next <strong data-start=\"3272\" data-end=\"3284\">30 years<\/strong> a hypothetical generation could number about <strong data-start=\"3325\" data-end=\"3346\">7 million people<\/strong>, of whom roughly <strong data-start=\"3365\" data-end=\"3381\">3.5 million<\/strong> would be women. At the current fertility rate, in his model they would give birth to fewer than <strong data-start=\"3468\" data-end=\"3489\">3 million children<\/strong>. The next generation in such a hypothetical progression would be even smaller: from <strong data-start=\"3555\" data-end=\"3576\">3 million children<\/strong> about <strong data-start=\"3585\" data-end=\"3601\">1.5 million<\/strong> would be women, and the number of births of the following generation could shrink to slightly more than <strong data-start=\"3699\" data-end=\"3713\">1 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3959\" data-end=\"4291\">In <strong data-start=\"3968\" data-end=\"3984\">Oleksiy Kusch<\/strong>&#8216;s view, if such parameters persist the country&#8217;s demographic base could shrink radically within just <strong data-start=\"4083\" data-end=\"4100\">two generations<\/strong>, that is, roughly within <strong data-start=\"4121\" data-end=\"4133\">50 years<\/strong>. He believes demographic policy is one of the issues Ukrainian political elites should prioritize.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4293\" data-end=\"4660\">At the same time it is important to distinguish between statistics and forecasts: the calculation presented by <strong data-start=\"4354\" data-end=\"4372\">Oleksiy Kusch<\/strong> is his conditional model, not an official forecast of <strong data-start=\"4455\" data-end=\"4466\">Ukraine<\/strong>&#8216;s population in <strong data-start=\"4473\" data-end=\"4488\">30\u201350 years<\/strong>. Actual demographics will be affected by the duration of the war, the return of Ukrainians from abroad, migration, mortality, economic conditions, and how birth rates change.<\/p>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"qf4znj\" data-start=\"4662\" data-end=\"4701\">There are fewer children in Mykolaiv region as well<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"4703\" data-end=\"5024\">A similar trend is already clearly visible in the <strong data-start=\"4741\" data-end=\"4766\">Mykolaiv region<\/strong>. In the <strong data-start=\"4770\" data-end=\"4800\">2026\/2027 school year<\/strong> schools in the region expected about <strong data-start=\"4836\" data-end=\"4857\">88,5 thousand pupils<\/strong>, whereas the previous year there were <strong data-start=\"4893\" data-end=\"4908\">94,3 thousand<\/strong>. Thus, in just one year the number of schoolchildren decreased by roughly <strong data-start=\"4963\" data-end=\"4977\">5,8 thousand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5026\" data-end=\"5447\">As of <strong data-start=\"5036\" data-end=\"5058\">5 August 2026<\/strong> parents had submitted <strong data-start=\"5076\" data-end=\"5104\">5 782 applications<\/strong> in Mykolaiv region for enrollment of children in first grade. The director of the Education and Science Department of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, <strong data-start=\"5201\" data-end=\"5221\">Alla Velikhovska<\/strong>, then emphasized that the figure was preliminary and could change by the start of the school year. Among the future first-graders there were many displaced children, including from the <strong data-start=\"5383\" data-end=\"5406\">Kherson region<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5449\" data-end=\"5707\">So the nationwide demographic trend already has a concrete dimension for the <strong data-start=\"5499\" data-end=\"5515\">Mykolaiv region<\/strong>: fewer children means fewer pupils in schools, changes in the load on the education network, and, in the long term, significantly fewer young people entering the labor market.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\" data-section-id=\"1r74be3\" data-start=\"6951\" data-end=\"6972\">Earlier we wrote:<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"6974\" data-end=\"7183\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">\n<li data-section-id=\"rwywvp\" data-start=\"6974\" data-end=\"7015\"><span class=\"contents\" data-content-reference-start=\"6871\" data-content-reference-end=\"7064\"><span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><a class=\"decorated-link\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/606819\/almost-6-000-fewer-in-a-year-how-many-children-will-be-studying-in-the-mykolaiv-region\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Almost 6,000 fewer in a year: how many children will attend school in Mykolaiv region<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"18npx85\" data-start=\"7016\" data-end=\"7057\"><span class=\"contents\" data-content-reference-start=\"7067\" data-content-reference-end=\"7236\"><span class=\"\" data-state=\"instant-open\" aria-describedby=\"radix-_r_1dm_\" data-radix-popper-side=\"top\" data-radix-popper-align=\"start\"><a class=\"decorated-link\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/608723\/in-mykolaiv-45-schools-will-operate-in-person-and-another-12-remotely\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-describedby=\"radix-_r_1dm_\">In Mykolaiv 45 schools will operate in-person, another 12 remotely<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1nw41v9\" data-start=\"7058\" data-end=\"7099\"><span class=\"contents\" data-content-reference-start=\"7239\" data-content-reference-end=\"7437\"><span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><a class=\"decorated-link\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/610126\/no-long-speeches-under-the-sun-schools-are-advised-to-skip-assemblies-on-september-1\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Without long speeches under the sun: schools are advised to forgo assemblies on September 1<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"5lr08l\" data-start=\"7100\" data-end=\"7141\"><span class=\"contents\" data-content-reference-start=\"7440\" data-content-reference-end=\"7667\"><span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><a class=\"decorated-link\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/09\/610823\/fines-for-using-russian-in-school-chats-the-ombudswoman-reminded-parents-and-teachers-of-the-rules\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fines for Russian in school chats: the ombudswoman reminded parents and teachers of the rules<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Only 243,398 children started first grade in Ukraine this year. In 2018\/2019 there were almost 455 thousand.<br \/>\nIn the Mykolaiv region the picture is the same: over the year the total number of schoolchildren decreased by almost 5.8 thousand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12394,"featured_media":410735,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tstyn_error":"","tie_post_sub_title":"From 455 to 243 thousand: first-grade figures revealed the scale of Ukraine's demographic problem"},"categories":[4578,4618],"tags":[4663,4913],"class_list":["post-611849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society","category-theme-of-the-day","tag-education","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.4 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Demographic catastrophe&quot;: only 243 thousand first-graders in Ukraine - the number of children in schools has halved - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Only 243,398 children started first grade in Ukraine this year. 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In the Mykolaiv region the picture is the same: over the year the total number of schoolchildren decreased by almost 5.8 thousand. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/09\/611849\/demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/korabelovinfo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-04T10:04:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-04T10:05:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/yzobrazhenye_viber_2023-08-31_16-16-17-456.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1047\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/611849\\\/demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/611849\\\/demographic-catastrophe-only-243-thousand-first-graders-in-ukraine-the-number-of-children-in-schools-has-halved\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Modern\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a56bea94f434cf219bea48ae0ad2db79\"},\"headline\":\"\\\"Demographic catastrophe\\\": only 243 thousand first-graders in Ukraine - 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