{"id":603528,"date":"2026-08-07T10:20:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T07:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/08\/603528\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T10:20:41","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T07:20:41","slug":"who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603528\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\" data-start=\"87\" data-end=\"358\">According to the simulation of the second round of the presidential election, <strong data-start=\"152\" data-end=\"176\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong> would lose to <strong data-start=\"190\" data-end=\"248\">Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Mykhailo Fedorov and Kyrylo Budanov<\/strong>. At the same time, in matchups with <strong data-start=\"270\" data-end=\"291\">Petro Poroshenko<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"295\" data-end=\"316\">Andrii Biletsky<\/strong> the incumbent President would have greater support.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"360\" data-end=\"845\">These results are presented in the published study &#8220;General Situation in Ukraine. BAROMETER&#8221; for <strong data-start=\"463\" data-end=\"484\">August 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div id='gallery-1' class='gallery galleryid-603470 gallery-columns-3 gallery-size-thumbnail'>\n<figure class='gallery-item'>\n<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a href='https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/08\/603470\/khto-mozhe-peremohty-zelenskoho-sotsiolohy-zmodeliuvaly-druhyj-tur-vyboriv\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29-2\/'><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"410\" height=\"270\" src=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29-2-410x270.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<figure class='gallery-item'>\n<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a href='https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/08\/603470\/khto-mozhe-peremohty-zelenskoho-sotsiolohy-zmodeliuvaly-druhyj-tur-vyboriv\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29-3\/'><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"410\" height=\"270\" src=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29-3-410x270.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<figure class='gallery-item'>\n<div class='gallery-icon landscape'>\n\t\t\t\t<a href='https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/08\/603470\/khto-mozhe-peremohty-zelenskoho-sotsiolohy-zmodeliuvaly-druhyj-tur-vyboriv\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29\/'><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"410\" height=\"270\" src=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/photo_2026-08-07_01-19-29-410x270.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<p data-start=\"847\" data-end=\"1067\">It is important that the figures <strong data-start=\"865\" data-end=\"890\">66.2%, 63.8% and 60.3%<\/strong> &#8211; are not shares among all respondents. On the slides they are labeled as &#8220;election simulation&#8221; and are calculated for <strong data-start=\"989\" data-end=\"1066\">respondents who have decided on a choice and are ready to go vote<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1069\" data-end=\"1193\">In the pairing <strong data-start=\"1076\" data-end=\"1119\">Valerii Zaluzhnyi &#8211; Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong> the results among those who have decided and plan to vote look like this:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1195\" data-end=\"1262\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1vjar3n\" data-start=\"1195\" data-end=\"1226\"><strong data-start=\"1197\" data-end=\"1225\">Valerii Zaluzhnyi &#8211; 66.2%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1dqsy70\" data-start=\"1227\" data-end=\"1262\"><strong data-start=\"1229\" data-end=\"1261\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 33.8%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1264\" data-end=\"1620\">If all respondents are taken into account, <strong data-start=\"1299\" data-end=\"1320\">47.4%<\/strong> were ready to vote for <strong data-start=\"1299\" data-end=\"1320\">Valerii Zaluzhnyi<\/strong>, and <strong data-start=\"1363\" data-end=\"1397\">24.2%<\/strong> for <strong data-start=\"1363\" data-end=\"1397\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong>. Another <strong data-start=\"1402\" data-end=\"1411\">10.2%<\/strong> chose the option &#8220;against both&#8221;, <strong data-start=\"1441\" data-end=\"1450\">14.7%<\/strong> were undecided or refused to answer, and <strong data-start=\"1497\" data-end=\"1505\">3.6%<\/strong> would not take part in the election. For modeling the result among the decided, responses from <strong data-start=\"1599\" data-end=\"1619\">1431 respondents<\/strong> were taken into account.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1622\" data-end=\"1724\">An even larger gap with the President is shown by the simulated pairing <strong data-start=\"1681\" data-end=\"1723\">Mykhailo Fedorov &#8211; Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1726\" data-end=\"1792\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1ygsj68\" data-start=\"1726\" data-end=\"1756\"><strong data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"1755\">Mykhailo Fedorov &#8211; 63.8%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1vazcgj\" data-start=\"1757\" data-end=\"1792\"><strong data-start=\"1759\" data-end=\"1791\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 36.2%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1794\" data-end=\"2125\">Among all respondents support for <strong data-start=\"1824\" data-end=\"1844\">Mykhailo Fedorov<\/strong> stands at <strong data-start=\"1855\" data-end=\"1864\">43.4%<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"1866\" data-end=\"1900\">for Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 24.7%<\/strong>. The &#8220;against both&#8221; option was chosen by <strong data-start=\"1930\" data-end=\"1939\">13.2%<\/strong>, another <strong data-start=\"1944\" data-end=\"1951\">15%<\/strong> were undecided or did not answer, and <strong data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"1995\">3.9%<\/strong> said they would not take part in the vote. In the &#8220;election simulation&#8221; calculation for this pair <strong data-start=\"2094\" data-end=\"2102\">1361<\/strong> decided respondents were included.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2127\" data-end=\"2275\">In a possible second round between <strong data-start=\"2156\" data-end=\"2177\">Kyrylo Budanov<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"2181\" data-end=\"2207\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong> the results among those who have decided and will go to the elections are:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2277\" data-end=\"2342\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1c2wf6i\" data-start=\"2277\" data-end=\"2306\"><strong data-start=\"2279\" data-end=\"2305\">Kyrylo Budanov &#8211; 60.3%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"pjl7x5\" data-start=\"2307\" data-end=\"2342\"><strong data-start=\"2309\" data-end=\"2341\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 39.7%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2344\" data-end=\"2659\">Among all survey participants <strong data-start=\"2376\" data-end=\"2395\">Kyrylo Budanov<\/strong> would be supported by <strong data-start=\"2409\" data-end=\"2418\">39.5%<\/strong>, and <strong data-start=\"2422\" data-end=\"2454\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 26%<\/strong>. <strong data-start=\"2488\" data-end=\"2497\">13.4%<\/strong> opposed both candidates, <strong data-start=\"2536\" data-end=\"2545\">17.3%<\/strong> were undecided or did not answer, and <strong data-start=\"2550\" data-end=\"2558\">3.9%<\/strong> would not take part in the election. For the second round modeling, responses from <strong data-start=\"2637\" data-end=\"2658\">1309 respondents<\/strong> were taken into account.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2661\" data-end=\"2796\">At the same time, according to the data provided together with the results, in two other simulated pairings the advantage already belongs to <strong data-start=\"2771\" data-end=\"2795\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2798\" data-end=\"2877\">In the pairing with <strong data-start=\"2807\" data-end=\"2828\">Petro Poroshenko<\/strong> the results among decided voters are:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2879\" data-end=\"2945\">\n<li data-section-id=\"pv5fjf\" data-start=\"2879\" data-end=\"2914\"><strong data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2913\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 64.8%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"dvv56j\" data-start=\"2915\" data-end=\"2945\"><strong data-start=\"2917\" data-end=\"2944\">Petro Poroshenko &#8211; 35.2%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2947\" data-end=\"2978\">In the pairing with <strong data-start=\"2956\" data-end=\"2977\">Andrii Biletsky<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2980\" data-end=\"3047\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1vdcsp7\" data-start=\"2980\" data-end=\"3015\"><strong data-start=\"2982\" data-end=\"3014\">Volodymyr Zelensky &#8211; 56.9%<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"m544d6\" data-start=\"3016\" data-end=\"3047\"><strong data-start=\"3018\" data-end=\"3046\">Andrii Biletsky &#8211; 43.1%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3049\" data-end=\"3306\">Thus, of the <strong data-start=\"3065\" data-end=\"3070\">5<\/strong> presented second-round scenarios <strong data-start=\"3104\" data-end=\"3128\">Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong> loses in <strong data-start=\"3144\" data-end=\"3149\">3<\/strong>: <strong data-start=\"3151\" data-end=\"3209\">Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Mykhailo Fedorov and Kyrylo Budanov<\/strong>. Meanwhile, in the models with <strong data-start=\"3234\" data-end=\"3255\">Petro Poroshenko<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"3259\" data-end=\"3280\">Andrii Biletsky<\/strong> he remains ahead.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3308\" data-end=\"3559\">At the same time, the results of sociological modeling are not a forecast of the actual outcome of future elections. They show respondents&#8217; answers to a hypothetical question at the time of the survey, and real electoral sentiments may change.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earlier we wrote:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/599705\/zaluzhnyi-fedorov-and-budanov-have-surpassed-zelensky-in-terms-of-trust-poll\/\">Zaluzhnyi, Fedorov and Budanov outpaced Zelensky in trust levels \u2013 poll<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/595886\/zaluzhnyi-told-zelensky-that-he-will-run-in-the-presidential-election-media-report\/\">Zaluzhnyi told Zelensky that he will run in the presidential election, \u2013 media<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/06\/592501\/ukrainians-trust-zelensky-but-trust-even-more-those-associated-with-the-front\/\">Ukrainians trust Zelensky, but trust even more those associated with the front<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/02\/572916\/40-vidsotkiv-mykolaivtsiv-obraly-by-novoho-prezydenta-34-vidsotky-pidtrymuiut-zelenskoho\/\">40% of Mykolaiv residents would choose a new President, 34% support Zelensky<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/01\/566235\/vybory-pid-chas-vijny-lyshe-10-ukraintsiv-pidtrymuiut-ideiu\/\">Elections during war: only 10% of Ukrainians support the idea<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sociologists modeled a possible second round of the presidential election. Among those who have already decided and are ready to vote:<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd39 Valerii Zaluzhnyi - 66.2%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 33.8%<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd39 Mykhailo Fedorov - 63.8%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 36.2%<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd39 Kyrylo Budanov - 60.3%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 39.7%<br \/>\nAt the same time, Zelensky is ahead of Petro Poroshenko - 64.8% vs 35.2%, and also of Andriy Biletsky - 56.9% vs 43.1%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12394,"featured_media":599657,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tstyn_error":"","tie_post_sub_title":"Zelensky would lose to Zaluzhnyi, Fedorov and Budanov in upcoming elections - poll"},"categories":[4614],"tags":[4812,4904,4877,4640],"class_list":["post-603528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politic","tag-elections","tag-rating","tag-survey","tag-zelenskij"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sociologists modeled a possible second round of the presidential election. Among those who have already decided and are ready to vote: \ud83d\udd39 Valerii Zaluzhnyi - 66.2%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 33.8% \ud83d\udd39 Mykhailo Fedorov - 63.8%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 36.2% \ud83d\udd39 Kyrylo Budanov - 60.3%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 39.7% At the same time, Zelensky is ahead of Petro Poroshenko - 64.8% vs 35.2%, and also of Andriy Biletsky - 56.9% vs 43.1%. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603528\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sociologists modeled a possible second round of the presidential election. Among those who have already decided and are ready to vote: \ud83d\udd39 Valerii Zaluzhnyi - 66.2%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 33.8% \ud83d\udd39 Mykhailo Fedorov - 63.8%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 36.2% \ud83d\udd39 Kyrylo Budanov - 60.3%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 39.7% At the same time, Zelensky is ahead of Petro Poroshenko - 64.8% vs 35.2%, and also of Andriy Biletsky - 56.9% vs 43.1%. | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603528\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/korabelovinfo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T07:20:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T07:20:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/MixCollage-22-Jul-2026-03-05-PM-3686.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"777\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Modern\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a56bea94f434cf219bea48ae0ad2db79\"},\"headline\":\"Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-07T07:20:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-07T07:20:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":503,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/MixCollage-22-Jul-2026-03-05-PM-3686.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Elections\",\"Rating\",\"Survey\",\"\u0417\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0438\u0439\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Politic\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603528\\\/who-can-beat-zelensky-sociologists-modeled-the-second-round-of-the-election\\\/\",\"name\":\"Who can beat Zelensky: sociologists modeled the second round of the election - 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Among those who have already decided and are ready to vote: \ud83d\udd39 Valerii Zaluzhnyi - 66.2%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 33.8% \ud83d\udd39 Mykhailo Fedorov - 63.8%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 36.2% \ud83d\udd39 Kyrylo Budanov - 60.3%, Volodymyr Zelensky - 39.7% At the same time, Zelensky is ahead of Petro Poroshenko - 64.8% vs 35.2%, and also of Andriy Biletsky - 56.9% vs 43.1%. | 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