{"id":603401,"date":"2026-08-06T15:49:36","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T12:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/2026\/08\/603401\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T15:49:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T12:49:39","slug":"strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603401\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\/","title":{"rendered":"Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the opinion of <strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong>, the main difference of the coming winter from the previous one is that Ukraine may gain the ability not only to withstand Russian strikes but also to respond against the capital of the aggressor state. The expert suggested that the Ukrainian long-range ballistic <strong>FP-9<\/strong> could appear in early autumn, and the first strike on <strong>Moscow<\/strong> is theoretically possible at the end of <strong>September<\/strong> or at the beginning of <strong>October<\/strong>. At the same time, he called these dates only his own assessment, not a confirmed plan of the Ukrainian command.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong> explained the choice of <strong>Moscow<\/strong> by saying that Russia is an extremely centralized state. Strikes on <strong>Voronezh<\/strong>, <strong>Murmansk<\/strong> or other regions may create local problems, but do not force the Kremlin elites to change their decisions. In contrast, explosions, power outages and heating problems in the Russian capital will have a much greater political effect.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-light\">\n<p>&#8220;If we freeze Murmansk, nothing will happen. But if we shut down Moscow, they will sit down at the negotiating table&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Under the expert&#8217;s scenario, after <strong>2<\/strong> successful Ukrainian ballistic strikes on <strong>Moscow<\/strong> the Russian side may agree to negotiations, for example, in the <strong>United Arab Emirates<\/strong>. The aim of such talks would not be a general end to the war, but a specific mutual moratorium on strikes against civilian energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-light\">\n<p>&#8220;And, in my view, a quite workable strategy is when after two successful ballistic counterstrikes on Moscow, at some negotiation venue in the Arab Emirates they will come out, and we will agree on a mutual moratorium not to strike each other&#8217;s civilian infrastructure&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thus, <strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong>&#8216;s logic is to force Russia into a symmetrical choice: either it stops attempts to leave <strong>Kyiv<\/strong> and other Ukrainian cities without power and heat, or it itself receives strikes on the energy infrastructure of <strong>Moscow<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"\u0412\u0438\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0440 \u041a\u0443\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0432: \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u044f \u0440\u0443\u0445\u043d\u0435\u0442 \u0432\u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u043f\u043d\u043e \u2014 \u0437\u0430 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0443 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044e. \u041a\u0430\u043a Starlink \u0437\u0430\u0447\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043b \u043d\u0435\u0431\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0434 \u041a\u0440\u044b\u043c\u043e\u043c.\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/45vTh3xpmQ0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The expert emphasized that Ukrainian society has already endured several winter campaigns, massive shelling, emergency outages and damage to heating networks. For residents of <strong>Moscow<\/strong>, a similar situation would be their first real experience of war in their own city.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-light\">\n<p>&#8220;Our society, and the people of Kyiv in particular, have a much higher pain threshold in this story, because for us this is the fifth wartime winter, whereas for Moscow it will be the first wartime winter. This is a very important factor of resilience, the society&#8217;s pain threshold&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>During the interview the host described the worst-case scenario: <strong>Kyiv<\/strong> and large cities in Left-Bank Ukraine could remain without electricity and heating for <strong>2 months<\/strong>, which would trigger a mass departure of people. In response <strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong> again named strong counterstrikes and a subsequent truce as one of the working options.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-light\">\n<p>&#8220;As I said at the very beginning, one of our feasible strategies is very strong counterstrikes and a ceasefire \u2014 a moratorium on strikes against civilian infrastructure. For example, in a minus-twenty-degree frost Moscow could also find itself in such a situation. And Ukraine, unlike last winter, can quite feasibly organize this&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Thus, the expert does not claim that a strike on <strong>Moscow<\/strong> will automatically end the war. It is about creating a direct threat of a winter blackout in the capital for the Kremlin, so that the cost of continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy becomes higher than the cost of agreeing to stop them.<\/p>\n<p>According to <strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong>, in the absence of sufficient means to intercept Russian ballistics, Ukraine must compensate for the weakness of its air defenses with the ability to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"quote-light\">\n<p>&#8220;If we cannot protect ourselves, then we can hurt them&#8221;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Statements about the timing of the appearance of <strong>FP-9<\/strong>, possible strikes on <strong>Moscow<\/strong> and negotiations afterwards are personal forecasts of <strong>Viktor Kurtiev<\/strong>. The Ukrainian military leadership has not officially confirmed such plans.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earlier we wrote:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/597472\/siberia-is-no-longer-a-rear-area-a-strike-on-russia-s-largest-refinery-could-be-the-last-straw\/\">Siberia is no longer a rear: a strike on Russia&#8217;s largest refinery could become &#8220;the last straw&#8221;<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/597294\/shmyhal-in-mykolaiv-the-region-will-be-reinforced-with-equipment-ahead-of-the-heating-season\/\">Shmyhal in Mykolaiv: the region will be reinforced with equipment ahead of the heating season<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/07\/596559\/nearly-half-of-russia-s-oil-refining-has-been-halted-ukrainian-drones-have-inflicted-13-5-billion-in-damage-to-the-industry\/\">Almost half of Russia&#8217;s oil refining halted: Ukrainian drones inflicted $13.5 billion in losses on the sector<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/06\/595341\/700-kilometers-didn-t-save-them-zelensky-reported-strikes-on-two-oil-refineries-in-russia\/\">700 kilometers didn&#8217;t save them: Zelensky reported strikes on two Russian refineries<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/06\/593567\/moscow-in-smoke-drones-struck-the-oil-refinery-in-kapotnya-airports-suspended-operations\/\">Moscow in smoke: drones struck a refinery in Kapotnya, airports suspended operations<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u26a1 Kyiv is preparing for a fifth wartime winter, and for Moscow it could become the first.<br \/>\nDue to a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, Ukraine will not be able to fully protect its energy sector from Russian ballistic missiles. Therefore, one of the scenarios he names is strong retaliatory strikes on Moscow.<br \/>\n\ud83d\udd25 According to his forecast, after two successful strikes, Russia may agree to negotiations on a mutual moratorium on attacks against civilian energy infrastructure.<br \/>\n\"If we shut Moscow down, they will sit down at the negotiating table.\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12394,"featured_media":603371,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tstyn_error":"","tie_post_sub_title":"Not enough Patriots: The threat of a blackout in Moscow could save Ukraine from strikes on its energy infrastructure"},"categories":[4578,4618],"tags":[4709],"class_list":["post-603401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society","category-theme-of-the-day","tag-war-with-russia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.2 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u26a1 Kyiv is preparing for a fifth wartime winter, and for Moscow it could become the first. Due to a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, Ukraine will not be able to fully protect its energy sector from Russian ballistic missiles. Therefore, one of the scenarios he names is strong retaliatory strikes on Moscow. \ud83d\udd25 According to his forecast, after two successful strikes, Russia may agree to negotiations on a mutual moratorium on attacks against civilian energy infrastructure. &quot;If we shut Moscow down, they will sit down at the negotiating table.&quot; | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603401\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u26a1 Kyiv is preparing for a fifth wartime winter, and for Moscow it could become the first. Due to a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, Ukraine will not be able to fully protect its energy sector from Russian ballistic missiles. Therefore, one of the scenarios he names is strong retaliatory strikes on Moscow. \ud83d\udd25 According to his forecast, after two successful strikes, Russia may agree to negotiations on a mutual moratorium on attacks against civilian energy infrastructure. &quot;If we shut Moscow down, they will sit down at the negotiating table.&quot; | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603401\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/korabelovinfo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-06T12:49:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-06T12:49:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/chrome_LypKN7MtN6.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1363\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"657\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Modern\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Modern\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a56bea94f434cf219bea48ae0ad2db79\"},\"headline\":\"Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-06T12:49:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-06T12:49:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":715,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/chrome_LypKN7MtN6.png\",\"keywords\":[\"War with Russia\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Society\",\"Theme of the Day\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/\",\"name\":\"Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce - \u041d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043d\u0438 \u041c\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0454\u0432\u0430 \u0441\u044c\u043e\u0433\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/en\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/603401\\\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/korabelov.info\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/chrome_LypKN7MtN6.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-06T12:49:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-06T12:49:39+00:00\",\"description\":\"\u26a1 Kyiv is preparing for a fifth wartime winter, and for Moscow it could become the first. 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Due to a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, Ukraine will not be able to fully protect its energy sector from Russian ballistic missiles. Therefore, one of the scenarios he names is strong retaliatory strikes on Moscow. \ud83d\udd25 According to his forecast, after two successful strikes, Russia may agree to negotiations on a mutual moratorium on attacks against civilian energy infrastructure. \"If we shut Moscow down, they will sit down at the negotiating table.\" | \u041a\u043e\u0440\u0430\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432.\u0418\u041d\u0424\u041e","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/korabelov.info\/en\/2026\/08\/603401\/strikes-on-moscow-as-a-path-to-an-energy-truce\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Strikes on Moscow as a path to an energy truce","og_description":"\u26a1 Kyiv is preparing for a fifth wartime winter, and for Moscow it could become the first. Due to a shortage of missiles for the Patriot, Ukraine will not be able to fully protect its energy sector from Russian ballistic missiles. 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