Ukraine’s population has fallen to 28.5 million — Libanova

A demographer warns that men may leave after the war

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22 Oct 2026

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Скорочення населення України та виїзд українців за кордон

An estimate that Ukraine’s population stood at 28.5 million people in mid-2026 was given by Ella Libanova, director of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. She named Ukrainians leaving the country as the main reason for the decline.

A preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography was also cited: in July 2026, approximately 29 million people lived in territory controlled by Ukraine. The margin of error for these calculations was around 300,000.

At the same time, unlike deaths, migration leaves open the possibility that people may return after the war ends. The demographer explained why she believes the most important thing is that Ukrainians abroad are still alive:

“Why do I say thank God? Because, whatever the circumstances, these people are still alive. If we bring them back to Ukraine—wonderful. If we don’t, they are Ukrainians; they will live, even if abroad. Those who died—we can’t bring them back,” said Ella Libanova.

Another risk that Libanova focused on is the possibility that men may leave after the war ends and martial law is lifted. In her view, families’ decisions will largely depend on whether men can find jobs in Ukraine that they consider worthwhile, and salaries they find acceptable.

“When men have the opportunity to leave, when they return from the front, we won’t be able to offer them jobs they consider worthwhile or salaries they find acceptable. And then the question arises: where will Ukrainian families reunite—in Ukraine or abroad?” Ella Libanova asked rhetorically.

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